Search results for "Interannual variability"
showing 10 items of 11 documents
Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales
2020
Summarization: The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events co…
Deep-Sea Bioluminescence Blooms after Dense Water Formation at the Ocean Surface
2013
The deep ocean is the largest and least known ecosystem on Earth. It hosts numerous pelagic organisms, most of which are able to emit light. Here we present a unique data set consisting of a 2.5-year long record of light emission by deep-sea pelagic organisms, measured from December 2007 to June 2010 at the ANTARES underwater neutrino telescope in the deep NW Mediterranean Sea, jointly with synchronous hydrological records. This is the longest continuous time-series of deep-sea bioluminescence ever recorded. Our record reveals several weeks long, seasonal bioluminescence blooms with light intensity up to two orders of magnitude higher than background values, which correlate to changes in th…
On the Angola low interannual variability and its role in modulating ENSO effects in southern Africa
2019
Abstract The Angola low is a summertime low pressure system that affects the convergence of low-level moisture fluxes into southern Africa. Interannual variations of the Angola low reduce the seasonal prediction skills for this region that arise from coupled atmosphere–ocean variability. Despite its importance, the interannual dynamics of the Angola low, and its relationship with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other coupled modes of variability, are still poorly understood, mostly because of the scarcity of atmospheric data and short-term duration of atmospheric reanalyses in the region. To bypass this issue, we use a long-term (3500 year) run from a 50-km-resolution global coupled…
Recent climate variability around the Kerguelen Islands (Southern Ocean) seen through weather regimes
2021
AbstractDaily weather regimes are defined around the Kerguelen Islands (Southern Ocean) based on daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies derived from the ERA5 ensemble reanalysis over the period 1979-2018. Ten regimes are retained as significant. Their occurrences are highly consistent across reanalysis ensemble members. Regimes show weak seasonality and non-significant long-term trends in their occurrences. Their sequences are usually short (1-3 days), with extreme persistence values above 10 days. Seasonal regime frequency is mostly driven by the phase of the Southern Annular Mode over Antarctica, mid-latitude dynamics over the Southern Ocean like the Pacific South American mode, and …
Interannual and decadal SST-forced responses of the West African monsoon
2010
International audience; We review the studies carried out during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)-EU on the changes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST)-West African monsoon (WAM) covariability at multidecadal timescales, together with the influence of global warming (GW). The results obtained in the AMMA-EU suggest the importance of the background state, modulated by natural and anthropogenic variability, in the appearance of different interannual modes. The lack of reliability of current coupled models in giving a realistic assessment for WAM in the future is also stated.
Précipitations et relief en Afrique orientale et australe : modélisations statistiques et géostatistiques.
2008
By considering two examples in Eastern and Southern Africa, this work has two aims: a better understanding of the influence of topography on the spatial distribution of rainfall and an optimal interpolation of station rainfall data, taking into account topography. To this end, an original methodology is developped, partly derived from previous studies focusing on extratropical regions.First, a statistical model is defined. With the help of a multi-scalar decomposition of topographical information into descriptors, a multiple linear regression is performed. This model is used to better understand the relationship between rainfall and topography. In Eastern Africa, the spatial distribution of…
From synoptic to interdecadal variability in southern African rainfall: toward a unified view across time scales.
2018
International audience; During the austral summer season (November–February), southern African rainfall, south of 20°S, has been shown to vary over a range of time scales, from synoptic variability (3–7 days, mostly tropical temperate troughs) to interannual variability (2–8 years, reflecting the regional effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation). There is also evidence for variability at quasi-decadal (8–13 years) and interdecadal (15–28 years) time scales, linked to the interdecadal Pacific oscillation and the Pacific decadal oscillation, respectively. This study aims to provide an overview of these ranges of variability and their influence on regional climate and large-scale atmospheric c…
Timing and patterns of the ENSO signal in Africa over the last 30 years: insights from normalized difference vegetation index data.
2014
Abstract A more complete picture of the timing and patterns of the ENSO signal during the seasonal cycle for the whole of Africa over the three last decades is provided using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Indeed, NDVI has a higher spatial resolution and is more frequently updated than in situ climate databases, and highlights the impact of ENSO on vegetation dynamics as a combined result of ENSO on rainfall, solar radiation, and temperature. The month-by-month NDVI–Niño-3.4 correlation patterns evolve as follows. From July to September, negative correlations are observed over the Sahel, the Gulf of Guinea coast, and regions from the northern Democratic Republic of Congo…
Climats tropicaux d'aujourd'hui à demain : variabilité et changements
2008
Present and future tropical climates : their climate variability and their climate changes The oriffttality of tropical climates is re-examined under the light of climate variability and climate change, both present and future . The interannual variability of rainfall is on average larger in the tropics than in the extra-tropics, but it is also spatially more contrasted. Human communities have often responded to this constraint through efficient coping strategies. The regions showing the most variable climate do not necessarily have lower population densities, an indication that in the long run variability is not decisive. However, the recent demographic growth of these regions is often low…
Determinants of the interannual relationships between remote sensed photosynthetic activity and rainfall in tropical Africa
2007
International audience; The response of photosynthetic activity to interannual rainfall variations in Africa South of the Sahara is examined using 20 years (1981-2000) of Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) AVHRR data. Linear correlations and regressions were computed between annual NDVI and annual rainfall at a 0.5° latitude/longitude resolution, based on two gridded precipitation datasets (Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation [CMAP] and Climatic Research Unit [CRU]). The spatial patterns were then examined to detect how they relate to the mean annual rainfall amounts, land-cover types as from the Global Land Cover 2000 data set, soil properties and soil typ…